The Dutch vote

Since the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump there have been fears of a populist wave engulfing Europe. Would the Netherlands be next? What about France? Germany too?

Last Wednesday the Dutch went to the polls. The populist radical-right Freedom Party (PVV) failed to cause an upset. The current Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, and his centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) walked away with the largest share of the vote. After months of armageddon-like scenarios involving the end of Europe, the reaction since the election has been one of relief. If the conversation before the result was whether Europe could survive a populist victory, many are now asking whether the outcome means such a threat has retreated for good.

In vaguely packaging the elections as another populist domino waiting to fall, many miscalculated the motivations on the ground. As the weight of the international media descended onto Dutch streets it seemed many were less interested in the mechanics of domestic politics, and more in one politician — Geert Wilders, leader of the PVV.

Wilders, described as the Dutch Trump (by few Dutch), has been involved in politics for 20 years. In his fourth election as party leader, his manifesto was a page long and said almost nothing about health care and education. While its content was unrealistic (shutting all mosques), its nativist rhetoric remained shocking.

Wilders eschewed the traditional campaigning and skipped debates. At times he epitomised a man more interested in cultivating an international image than governing. Granted, early polling numbers helped breed the sense of an upset, but the reality of Dutch coalition government means the role of kingmaker was always unlikely. Parties blacklisted him. Political analysts drew up a myriad of alternative combination that would give a ruling majority.

And what happened? Prime Minister Rutte’s VVD party came first. He will now be expected to form a government. Wilders will return to agitate from the touchline. The question of a populist wave will move onto France; now seen as the new battleground playing out the future of Europe.

Yet there is more to this Dutch story. Days before the election, a majority of the population remained undecided as who to vote for. 13 parties will now enter parliament. The centre-right VVD may have won the largest share, but it lost almost a quarter of its support. The centre-left Labour Party collapsed. The once fringe Green Left saw their seats increase by 10. The liberal D66 also saw gains.

Any coalition without Wilders and the PVV will need to pull support from across a disparate group of parties (allowing Wilders to continue his rail against a colluding establishment). While there is no doubt coalitions allow for a variety of views to be represented, they can also be costly. Complex coalitions can be fraught with short termism and political inertia. We could be in for some prolonged bargaining.

This political fragmentation is not confined to the Netherlands. It is a wider European phenomenon. Across the continent, traditional parties and their pillars of support have eroded. As a trend, it represents years of the political left and right converging towards the centre, and the emergence of smaller parties which have sought to take their place.

Europe has changed dramatically; politically, economically and culturally. In dividing society into the people and a corrupt elite, populists have taken advantage of these shifts. They will be difficult to reverse. The conditions that have allowed populism to emerge are unlikely to retreat. Wilders may have been squeezed in the Netherlands, but he is not going anywhere. Neither are the frictions underlying his support.

But it is not just parties like the PVV which we should be wary of. In the Netherlands and elsewhere, mainstream politicians have opportunely co-opted populist, as well as nativist and authoritarian, language in an effort to gain and hold onto power. Such mimicry will only damage our democracy in the long term. It also gives certain politicians (like Wilders) an influence they do not deserve.

The Dutch elections saw a high turnout. Though the PVV still came second, other parties argued for a new kind of cosmopolitan patriotism — directly challenging the ground the populist radical-right seek to dominate. While this should be welcomed, it would be a mistake to use the result as a basis for electoral prediction elsewhere.

To call populism a wave was always a crude and unhelpful analogy. But to dismiss its threat because of a close and fractured election in the Netherlands would be equally dangerous.

March 2017